H2 Forecast: Who’s Next To IPO?

Last year right around this time there were rumblings of the slumbering IPO market finally reawakening.

It kinda did with a few big names like Arm Holdings and Instacart testing the waters, but more hope was held out for the first half of this year. However, the IPO window so far in 2024, while slightly ajar, certainly has not seen the barrage of long-private, venture-backed companies go public many expected.

Instead the IPO pipeline has produced just a trickle of big-name companies such as online platform Reddit and chip startup Astera Labs making the leap to the public market.

There likely will be more in the second half, although perhaps not as many as once thought thanks to the shrinking time frame, the election, etc. Nevertheless, here are our best guesses about who may look to find an opening to get listed in the next six to 12 months.

AlphaSense: New York-based AlphaSense, an AI-enabled market intelligence platform, last month agreed to acquire rival Tegus for $930 million in cash and stock. It also secured fresh financing in a $650 million Series F round that values the combined company at $4 billion. The company also counts J.P. Morgan Growth Equity Partners and Goldman Sachs among the backers in that round, while Morgan Stanley was a prior investor. It’ll take some time to integrate an acquisition of that magnitude and to get the books in order for an IPO filing, so a public offering isn’t imminent. However, these are the kinds of steps a company might take if a big IPO is part of its future plans. Also, with $1.4 billion in funding since inception, it’ll take a big exit to deliver significant returns to its investors. 

Arctic Wolf: Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based cybersecurity firm Arctic Wolf is not new to this list. However, the timing may be right for this company to look at the public market. Back in late 2022, Arctic Wolf raised $401 million in convertible notes led by existing investor Owl Rock Capital. Convertible notes work like a short-term loan, but these notes are repaid to the investor at a later point in equity — i.e. after an IPO — typically at a discount. Well, those notes will be approaching 2 years old, so it may be time to turn them into equity. The managed security provider is now 12 years old, and in July 2021 raised $150 million in a Series F that valued it at $4.3 billion. That may be the problem right now, as it could be hard to to hit that target. However, data security and management company Rubrik went public earlier this year and was able to slightly top its 2021 valuation with its offering. Also, while Rubrik — which is similar in age to Arctic Wolf — isn’t profitable, it had a good IPO showing and has remained steady in the market. Maybe this is the right time for another cyber startup to test the waters.

Cerebras Systems: Yes, this one is kind of cheating. It’s already been reported that artificial intelligence chip startup Cerebras Systems has filed confidentially for an initial public offering. It’s a good time to be an AI chip developer. Nvidia has become one of the most — if not the most — valuable companies in the world and funding is currently gaining traction in the sector, with venture capitalists continuing to pour money in. Finally, Astera Labs — which provides data and memory connectivity solutions for some of the biggest chipmakers in the world — had a successful IPO even though its shares have tailed off its highs. It seems right that another chip startup will try to right those tailwinds. We thought it might be Groq, but a likely fresh $300 million will probably keep it off the public market for a while.

Chime: According to Bloomberg, a source close to San Francisco-based Chime said the digital bank is looking to go public in 2025. Chime has not released finances, but is estimated to have around 23 million customers, which would make it the largest neobank in the U.S. Chime was last valued in 2021 at $25 billion in a funding led by Sequoia Capital Global Equities, in advance of its plans to list back in 2022.  

Databricks: To be honest, we are going to keep putting Databricks on this list until we are eventually proven right. However, in all reality, Databricks will pick the exact moment it wants to go public and not a second sooner. As a VC was telling us the other day, “Companies like Databricks can go (public) whenever they want.” With election uncertainty swirling and inflation unstable, now likely isn’t the time. On the other hand, the San Francisco-based company is now more than a decade old, and the data storage and management VC-backed giant is making a strong AI play. It acquired OpenAI competitor MosaicML for $1.3 billion last year, and in May it even announced a new Databricks AI Fund as part of Databricks Ventures. Investors like all things AI right now, and Databricks would be the biggest new fish possible to enter the public market AI pond.

Revolut: Revolut released stellar earnings for 2023, a strong indicator that the London-based fintech has plans to go public. Revolut posted strong revenue growth in 2023 — up 95% year over year. The company reported $2.2 billion in revenue for 2023 and a profit of $545 million alongside 12 million new customers. Its current customer base is 45 million as of June, gaining 7 million in the first half of this year. Revolut was last valued at $33 billion in 2021. 

Sila Nanotechnologies: Founded in 2011, Alameda, California-based Sila Nanotechnologies has raised $1.4 billion to date in equity and grant funding to develop a nano-composite silicon anode engineered to vastly improve energy density in lithium-ion batteries. The company garnered headlines a few weeks ago for securing a $375 million Series G led by Sutter Hill Ventures and T. Rowe Price, as it completes the buildout of a manufacturing plant in Moses Lake, Washington, that will supply automaker customers including Mercedes-Benz. With rising adoption of electric vehicles and continued investor interest around next-generation battery technology, it wouldn’t be surprising if Sila added IPO to its long list of ambitious goals.

Stripe: We could not leave Stripe off a list of IPO contenders. Stripe’s value was halved to $50 billion in 2023 in a $6.5 billion round raised to support employees with their stock tax obligations. Stripe reached $1 trillion in payment volume processed in 2023, up 25% year over year, and claimed to be cash-flow positive. South San Francisco-based Stripe would be the most anticipated U.S. IPO from all the companies on The Crunchbase Unicorn Board. Its current CFO, Steffan Tomlinson, joined the API technology company in September 2023. He has taken three companies public: Confluent, Palo Alto Networks and Aruba. 

SymphonyAI: We’ve been following SymphonyAI for a while here at Crunchbase News. That’s why a Reuters report came as little shock that the company was already talking to banks about a public offering. The Palo Alto, California-based company, which reached both a $500 million revenue run rate and profitability, offers predictive AI across a variety of industries to help forecast things such as product demand. It also has started offering generative AI features — because why not? SymphonyAI was founded by Romesh Wadhwani, PhD, in 2017. In 2002, prior to founding SymphonyAI, Wadhwani founded Symphony Technology Group, a private equity firm investing in software and technology-enabled services companies. With investors craving all things AI — likely including predictive AI — the timing may be right for SymphonyAI.

Vast Data: Vast Data operates a data platform optimized to power AI and deep learning in modern data centers and clouds. Founded in 2016, the New York company has raised $381 million to date, including a $118 million Fidelity-led Series E in December 2020, with Goldman Sachs among its other backers. With continued investor enthusiasm around top-performing AI companies, it looks like Vast could make a compelling pitch around its capabilities. This month, the company announced certification as a high-performance storage solution for Nvidia’s cloud partners — helping tie the company brand to the highest-flying stock of the AI era.

Illustration: Dom Guzman