SpaceX Stable On Private Market As Tesla And Public Spacetechs Plunge

The past few months have been tumultuous for public companies linked to either Elon Musk or spacetech. By contrast, SpaceX, the most valuable private, venture-backed unicorn, has been comparatively stable.

SpaceX’s valuation hit $350 billion in December following a closely watched secondary share sale. In that transaction, the company and investors agreed to buy $1.25 billion in stock from insiders at $185 a share.

These days, a share of Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX on private share marketplace Forge is valued higher, at around $229. ​​1 That kind of rise in months following a large tender offer isn’t unusual, as such offerings commonly set a price floor for subsequent, smaller share trades, said Howe Ng, head of data and investment solutions at Forge.

SpaceX vs Tesla

The contrast between public and private market trendlines for Musk- and spacetech-related assets is dramatic.

In the roughly three months since SpaceX’s tender, shares of Musk-led Tesla soared to an all-time high around $489 per share before nosediving to around $220 on Monday.

Falling sales in China and multiple European markets contributed to the selloff. We’re also seeing backlash from much of Tesla’s former and prospective U.S. customer base regarding its CEO’s political activities.

After Monday’s selloff, Tesla shares rose some in Tuesday trading, after President Trump posted on Truth Social shortly after midnight that he would buy a new Tesla as “a show of confidence and support for Elon Musk, a truly great American.” (Stocks were up for many beaten-down names from the prior day’s selloff, so it’s unclear whether this was a contributing factor.)

Spacetech fell on public markets too

Publicly traded spacetech companies have also been up and down.

Shares of Rocket Lab, a provider of launch services and satellite design, hit an all-time high in January and have since shed around 40% of their value. Another prominent spacetech company, Intuitive Machines, saw its stock tumble this week after its lunar lander ended up on its side in a crater.

Of course, the most visible spacetech disaster of late involved SpaceX. The company suffered a major setback to its interplanetary ambitions when its giant Starship rocket exploded in space last week minutes after liftoff in Texas, raining debris and bringing a temporary halt to air traffic in parts of Florida.

Starship has launched twice this year, and blew up on both occasions.

If SpaceX were a publicly traded company, one would expect share prices to decline following such a setback. Private markets, however, don’t exhibit the same kind of rapid valuation shifts in response to breaking news. In a bad week for major indices, this appears to be one of the advantages of staying private.

That said, private company valuations do eventually decline if performance falters or pessimism around their future prospects grows. During the “great reset” after the market peak in late 2021, the median company on Forge’s platform saw a 24% valuation drop from its last primary funding round.

SpaceX, however, has been moving higher pretty consistently. The $350 billion valuation mark it hit in December represented a 67% surge from the previous high of $210 billion, which the company reportedly achieved in a June secondary share sale.

Of late, SpaceX has been known for generally holding buyback events twice a year, in which it purchases shares from employees. If it does so again this summer, we can expect an updated valuation that reflects investors’ latest presumptions about its future potential.

Illustration: Dom Guzman